Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 8.466866e-05 0.000101 0.000118 0.000137 0.000159 0.000181 0.000208
2025-01-19 6.473383e-05 0.000086 0.000110 0.000140 0.000175 0.000213 0.000259
2025-01-26 5.074255e-05 0.000073 0.000100 0.000135 0.000176 0.000224 0.000283
2025-02-02 4.181913e-05 0.000066 0.000096 0.000136 0.000185 0.000244 0.000317
2025-02-09 3.480081e-05 0.000059 0.000091 0.000135 0.000190 0.000258 0.000343
2025-02-16 3.095640e-05 0.000056 0.000091 0.000139 0.000203 0.000281 0.000381
2025-02-23 2.680323e-05 0.000052 0.000089 0.000141 0.000210 0.000297 0.000411
2025-03-02 2.130507e-05 0.000045 0.000082 0.000135 0.000209 0.000302 0.000426
2025-03-09 1.755513e-05 0.000041 0.000077 0.000133 0.000210 0.000311 0.000446
2025-03-16 1.477107e-05 0.000037 0.000074 0.000132 0.000214 0.000322 0.000469
2025-03-23 1.281309e-05 0.000035 0.000073 0.000133 0.000221 0.000337 0.000496
2025-03-30 1.066752e-05 0.000032 0.000070 0.000132 0.000224 0.000347 0.000517
2025-04-06 8.150523e-06 0.000028 0.000065 0.000128 0.000224 0.000354 0.000536
2025-04-13 6.992007e-06 0.000026 0.000064 0.000131 0.000233 0.000374 0.000573
2025-04-20 5.086367e-06 0.000023 0.000059 0.000126 0.000231 0.000378 0.000587
2025-04-27 4.126615e-06 0.000021 0.000058 0.000127 0.000237 0.000393 0.000617
2025-05-04 3.177833e-06 0.000019 0.000055 0.000126 0.000240 0.000404 0.000642
2025-05-11 2.816138e-06 0.000018 0.000056 0.000130 0.000252 0.000428 0.000684
2025-05-18 2.272596e-06 0.000017 0.000055 0.000132 0.000259 0.000444 0.000715
2025-05-25 1.488716e-06 0.000015 0.000051 0.000126 0.000255 0.000445 0.000726
2025-06-01 1.019778e-06 0.000013 0.000048 0.000124 0.000256 0.000452 0.000746
2025-06-08 7.175865e-07 0.000012 0.000046 0.000123 0.000259 0.000463 0.000770
2025-06-15 5.317182e-07 0.000011 0.000046 0.000125 0.000265 0.000479 0.000801